Ideal start for winter crops: forecast

Friday, June 22, 2007

Tuesday Jun 19 10:37 AEST

The federal government's commodity forecaster expects the 2007/08 winter crop to jump by 21 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes due to improved weather conditions.

However, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) says the lingering drought through the summer will have cut the major summer crops by 57 per cent to 1.89 million tonnes.

ABARE is expecting wheat production in 2007/08 to recover to 22.5 million tonnes from the drought affected 9.82 million tonnes in 2006/07, but still shy of the 25.4 million tonnes achieved in 2005/06.

ABARE said autumn rainfall across the majority of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia has provided an ideal start to the 2007/08 winter cropping season.

But in a note of caution it said continued dry conditions throughout Queensland and parts of Western Australia meant that winter crop prospects in those states are below average at this stage.

ABARE's crop production forecasts assume a return to average crop yields.

ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde said the total area sown to winter crops in Australia is forecast to increase by around 10 per cent to just over 20 million hectares in 2007-08.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to 12.4 million hectares.

Barley and canola areas are also forecast to increase by 10 per cent and seven per cent respectively.

Barley production is forecast to increase to around nine million tonnes, and canola production is forecast to be around 1.4 million tonnes, almost triple the amount produced in the previous season.

Mr Glyde said the outlook for winter crops after last year's drought is in marked contrast to the outcomes from recently harvested summer crops.

Of the major summer crops, grain sorghum production is estimated to have declined by around 52 per cent to 952,000 tonnes, and cotton production by around 54 per cent, to its lowest level in almost 20 years.

"The rice crop was severely depleted by lack of water. However, favourable growing conditions resulted in above average rice yields," Mr Glyde said.

Total rice production fell by 83 per cent, to around 167,000 tonnes for the 2006-07 season.

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©AAP 2007