Even money bet for wetter than average winter - 1/05/07

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

The good weekend rainfall across south-eastern Australia was in line with the latest forecasting from the Bureau of Meteorology, which predicts it is an even money bet that there will be above average rainfall Australia-wide this winter.
And it says, the odds are in favour of above-normal seasonal rainfall for May to July in drought-ravaged South East Queensland and in north-east NSW.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 60pc and 65pc in an area straddling the NSW/Qld border roughly between Armidale, NSW, and Roma, Qld.

The Bureau says the chances for most of the country of accumulating at least average rain for the coming three months are close to 50pc.

It says the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is a result of recent higher than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and also in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall.

During the May-July period, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent in a band from the central Northern Territory across most of the southern two-thirds of Queensland, as well as the north-eastern half of NSW.

Moderate consistency is also evident in much of Tasmania, parts of southern Victoria, and patches through the interior of Western Australia.

The Bureau reports a large body of cool subsurface water persists in the central to eastern Pacific, thereby raising the potential for a La Niña to develop in 2007.

SOURCE: Bureau of Meteorology & Farm Weekly.